HMD 4th Symposium, May 22-23, 2017

Similarities and Peculiarities on the Way to Longer Life in Human Population

Presentations and Papers

WELCOME AND INTRODUCTION [PDF]

• Magali Barbieri (Associate Director of the HMD; University of California Berkeley and Institut National d'Études Démographiques)
• John R. Wilmoth (Founding Director of the HMD; United Nations Population Division)
  
  

KEYNOTE TALKS

• John R. Wilmoth (Founding Director of the HMD; United Nations Population Division). Uses of the Human Mortality Database for demographic estimation and forecasting at the United Nations. [PDF]
• France Meslé (Institut National d'Études Démographiques) and Jacques Vallin (Institut National d'Études Démographiques) Best practice in life expectancy gender gaps: a moving concept [PDF]
• David A. Leon (London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine) and Markéta Pecholdová (Vysoka Škola Ekonomicka) Alcohol and mortality
  
  

DATA AND METHODS

• Dmitri A. Jdanov (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research) and Vladimir M. Shkolnikov (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research) Decomposing current mortality differences into initial differences and differences in trends: the contour decomposition method [PDF]
• Jean-Marie Robine (University of Montpellier and INSERM), Sarah Cubaynes (University of Montpellier), Marie Herr (INSERM and Université Versailles St-Quentin-en-Yvelines), Sefan Fors (Karolinska Institute, Stockholm University), Marti Parker (Karolinska Institute, Stockholm University), Yusuhiko Saito (Nihon University), Bernard Jeune (University of Southern Denmark) and François R. Herrmann (Geneva University Hospitals and University of Geneva) In search of a trade-off between health and longevity: the 5-Country Oldest Old Project [PDF]
• Trifon I. Missov (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research), László Németh (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research and Hungarian Demographic Research Institute), and Maciej J. Dańko (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research) Identifying the pattern of human mortality at its front end
• Ulrich Mueller (Federal Institute for Population Research), Andrea Werdecker (Federal Institute for Population Research) and Ronny Westerman (Federal Institute for Population Research) Projecting healthy volunteer bias and effects of eventual improvements in health care access and quality for amenable causes-of-death in the German National Cohort 2014-2111, with applications for estimating life expectancy / lifespan from survey data [PDF]
• Nico Keilman (University of Oslo), Dinh Quang Pham (Statistics Norway), and Astri Syse (Statistics Norway) Mortality shifts and mortality compression in Norway 1900-2100: empirical and predicted period and cohort life tables

MORTALITY MODELS

• Samuel J. Clark (Ohio State University) A general age-specific mortality model with an example indexed by child or child/adult mortality [PDF]
• Louis Chauvel (University of Luxembourg) Anja K. Leist (University of Luxembourg), and Herbert L. Smith (University of Pennsylvania) Detecting the ‘Big Red Spot’ of age-period excess mortality in 25 countries: age-period- cohort residual analysis of the HMD
• Christina Bohk-Ewald (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research), Roland Rau (University of Rostock and Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research) and Joel E. Cohen (The Rockefeller University and Columbia University) Taylor ’s law and its application in human mortality
• David A. Swanson (University of California Riverside) On equality and inequality in stationary populations [PDF]

FORECASTING

• Jim Oeppen (Max-Planck Odense Center) and Søren Kjærgaard (Max-Planck Odense Center) Forecasting deaths from a single cause with competing risks [PDF]
• Heather Booth (Australian National University) Coherent forecasting with standards
• Joop de Beer (Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute), Anastasios Bardoutsos (University of Groningen), and Fanny Janssen (Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute and University of Groningen) Projecting delay and compression of mortality [PDF]
• Lenny Stoeldraijer (Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute and University of Groningen), Coen van Duin (Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek), and Fanny Janssen (Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute and University of Groningen) Comparing strategies for matching mortality forecasts to the most recently observed data [Abstract]   [PDF]

CAUSE SPECIFIC MORTALITY

• Corinne A. Riddell (McGill University), Kathryn T. Morrison (McGill University), Jay S. Kaufman (McGill University) and Sam Harper (McGill University) Exploring how changes in cause of death have narrowed the black-white life expectancy gap in the United States [PDF]
• Haidong Wang (University of Washington) and Christopher JL Murray (University of Washington) Estimating all-cause mortality and HIV cause specific mortality: the interactions between spectrum and a new relational model life table system
• Govert E. Bijwaard (Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute and University of Groningen), Mikko Myrskylä (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research), Per Tynelius (Karolinska Institute, Stockholm University) and Finn Rasmussen (Karolinska Institute, Stockholm University) Education, cognitive ability and cause-specific mortality: a structural approach [PDF]
• Sergi Trias-Llimos (University of Groningen) and Fanny Janssen (University of Groningen and Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute and University of Groningen) The contribution of alcohol-related mortality to the gender gap in life expectancy in 8 Eastern European countries

SOCIAL & REGIONAL DISPARITIES

• Domantas Jasilionis (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research) and Vladimir Shkolnikov (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research) Higher education and longevity at old age: methodological issues and demographic insights
• José Manuel Aburto (Max Planck Odense Center), Ugofilippo Basellini (Max Planck Odense Center and Institut National d'Études Démographiques), Søren Kjærgaard (Max Planck Odense Center) and James W. Vaupel (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Max Planck Odense Center) Life expectancy and lifespan equality: a dynamic long-run relationship [PDF]
• Jon Anson (Ben-Gurion University of the Negev) and Heather Booth (Australian National University) Disentangling the triple helix of mortality inequality: form of capital, solidarity and local area mortality in Australia [PDF]
• Sebastian Klüsener (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research), Rembrandt Scholz (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research), Pavel Grigoriev (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research), Dmitri A. Jdanov (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research) Adding the subnational dimension to the systematic analysis of the longevity revolution: opportunities and challenges in establishing a subnational Human Mortality Database
• Magali Barbieri (University of California Berkeley and Institut National d'Études Démographiques) The deterioration of U.S. mortality in a comparative perspective. The long view

ROUND-TABLE DISCUSSION: The future of the HMD project [PDF]

• Moderators: Magali Barbieri (HMD Berkeley team) and Dmitri Jdanov (HMD Rostock team)
• Vladimir M. Shkolnikov (Director of the HMD) The Human Mortality Database: todays challenges and further development.
• Brief notes by John R. Wilmoth, James W. Vaupel, James Oeppen, Heather Booth, Fanny Janssen
• Discussion

POSTER PRESENTATIONS

• Inna Danilova (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research) Consistency of cause-specific mortality data at subnational level: a comparative analysis of France, Germany and Russia [PDF]
• Sergey Timonin (National Research University Higher School of Economics), Domantas Jasilionis (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research), Vladimir Shkolnikov (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research) and Evgeny Andreev (National Research University Higher School of Economics) Spatial health disparities in Russia: a small area analysis
• Juris Krumins (University of Latvia) and Aleksandrs Dahs (University of Latvia) East-West health divide crossing the territory of Latvia – divergence or convergence? [PDF]
• Gabriel Mendes Borges (University of California Berkeley) Beyond convergence and divergence: measuring mortality trends and variations across countries [PDF]
• Nikoletta Vidra (University of Groningen) Sergi Trias-Llimós (University of Groningen), Fanny Janssen (University of Groningen and Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute) The role of obesity in explaining convergence in mortality across European countries
• Rembrandt Scholz (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research), Pavel Grigoriev (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research), Sebastian Klüsener (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research) The East-West gap in life expectancy in Germany and the return to growing disparities at ages 45-55
• Tim Riffe (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research), Adrien Remund (Université de Genève and Institut National d'Études Démographiques), Markus Göhler (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research) Resurrecting dead data. The PKS database and its potential for research on causes of death
• Marius Pascariu (Max Planck Odense Center), and Vladimir Canudas-Romo (Max Planck Odense Center) A history of mortality modeling from Gompertz to Lee-Carter everything in a single R package: MortalityLaws [PDF]
• Elena A. Grigorieva (Institute for Complex Analysis of Regional Problems) Human mortality, seasonality and climate in Khabarovsk and Birobidzhan, Russian Far East [PDF]

The Human Cause-of-Death Database

• Inna Danilova, France Meslé, Dmitri Jdanov, Markéta Pechholdová, Domantas Jasilionis, Vladimir M. Shkolnikov, Jacques Vallin
  Free access to coherent time series of cause-specific mortality [PDF]